Financial-cycle early warning · Advanced markets

Advanced-Market Overheating Index

IMF Advanced-Market overheating index calculated on live data for advanced markets.

For each economy we look at two metrics, equity and output. A metric is considered overheating if it's sitting above its long-run trend by 6.7% for equity and 1.3% for output. Readings are real-time and revised quarterly as data arrives. A complete explanation is available in the About section, and a complete explanation of the methodology is available in the Methodology section.

0 — Neither over the threshold 0.497 — equity over the threshold 0.503 — output over the threshold 1.0 — both over the threshold
Market Index Equity gap Output gap As of

Emerging markets with their own thresholds and metrics are planned for a future update.

Method: Chen & Svirydzenka (2021), IMF WP/21/116. Filter: Christiano–Fitzgerald. Data: FRED, Eurostat, ONS, ABS, StatCan, IMF IFS.

Advanced-market overheating

Real equity-price gap threshold +6.7% · band 8–22 quarters
Output gap threshold +1.3% · band 3–51 quarters

The signal each quarter

Each cell is what the index would have measured at each quarter. Dark underlines mark systemic banking crises as defined by Laeven–Valencia (2026 update, WP/26/94). Because the crisis window is capped at five years, a fading tail indicates that the episode may have continued beyond that limit, but after the cap it is no longer considered a formal crisis by the database. The database observes 1970–2025.

Calm One signal over threshold Both over threshold Systemic banking crisis, as defined by Laeven & Valencia Time not covered by Laeven & Valencia (1970–2025)